Explorers’ Edge Business Confidence Index
2026 Results and Three-Year Outlook
Explorers’ Edge is pleased to share the 2026 Business Confidence Index, a regional snapshot of tourism operator sentiment across Muskoka, Parry Sound, Almaguin Highlands, Algonquin Park, South Algonquin and Loring–Restoule.
Now in its third year, the Business Confidence Index helps track how tourism operators are feeling about the season ahead, the pressures affecting their businesses, and the opportunities emerging across the region. By asking a consistent set of core questions each year, the index provides a useful year-over-year view of business confidence across the regional visitor economy.
The 2026 results mark an important turning point. For the first time in the three-year history of the index, regional business confidence has moved into positive territory. The Explorers’ Edge Business Confidence Index reached 51.9 in 2026, up from 48.8 in 2025 and 47.9 in 2024, on a scale where 50 represents neutral sentiment.
The chart below tells the story clearly: after two years below the neutral line, business confidence crossed into net-positive territory in 2026. This does not suggest a tourism boom, but it does show that confidence has steadily improved and that operators are entering the season with a stronger sense of stability than in previous years.
The results show that tourism operators are more confident and more stable than in previous years. At the same time, the report makes clear that this is a cautious recovery. Operators are feeling less downside risk, but many are still budgeting for flat revenue, tighter consumer spending, shorter stays, and continued pressure on margins.
Key Highlights from the 2026 Findings
Business confidence has turned positive. The 2026 index score of 51.9 is the first net-positive reading in the series, and all six core index components improved this year.
Optimism is at its highest point in three years. Nearly 45% of operators reported being optimistic about meeting their business objectives, compared to just over 10% who were pessimistic.
The outlook is more stable, but not aggressively growth-focused. More than half of operators expect 2026 revenue to be similar to 2025, while only about one in four expect revenue to be higher. This suggests the region has moved from volatility toward stability, but that many businesses are still not planning for major growth.
The labour crisis has eased. Staffing optimism is one of the strongest areas of improvement in the index. The report shows that “lack of employees” has declined significantly as a business constraint compared to earlier survey waves, suggesting the acute staffing pressures of recent years have become more manageable.
Unsold capacity remains the region’s largest measurable opportunity. While capacity utilization has improved, half of operators still report running below capacity. This points to a major opportunity for demand generation, season extension, transportation connections, packaging, and conversion-focused destination marketing.
The 2025 tariff and border-policy shock has largely been absorbed. In 2025, operators were highly concerned about the potential impacts of U.S. tariff and border policies. By 2026, the share of operators reporting no effect had more than doubled, while some operators reported positive effects connected to Canadians redirecting travel closer to home.
The fall 2026 outlook is cautiously positive. Operators are not only looking at the summer season. The report shows a net-positive outlook for fall 2026, suggesting confidence extends into the shoulder season.
Thank You to Participating Businesses
Thank you to the tourism operators and businesses who took the time to complete the 2026 Business Confidence Index survey. Your input helps Explorers’ Edge better understand what is happening on the ground across the regional visitor economy and helps inform our work with partners, policymakers, communities and industry stakeholders.
As an added incentive for participation, one business has been randomly selected to receive a $1,500 Explorers’ Edge Awareness Program Social Boost to help increase visibility through Explorers’ Edge and/or The Great Canadian Wilderness channels.
We will be contacting the selected business directly and will announce the winner publicly once they have been notified.
Why This Matters
The Business Confidence Index provides more than a snapshot of operator sentiment. It helps identify where the regional tourism economy is gaining strength, where pressure remains, and where strategic action can have the greatest impact.
For tourism businesses, the findings point to the importance of margin discipline, yield management, guest data collection, packaging, and creating value in a market where visitors may still be travelling but are more careful with how they spend.
For destination marketers and tourism partners, the report reinforces the importance of demand generation. With half of regional capacity still unsold, there is a clear opportunity to better connect visitors with available experiences, accommodations, transportation options, and shoulder-season travel ideas.
For policymakers, the findings show that tourism remains closely connected to larger issues such as affordability, housing, transportation, workforce stability, climate resilience, and small business cost pressures.
For investors and community leaders, the report identifies a region with established tourism assets, improving confidence, and available capacity — but also a need for continued support to turn stability into sustainable growth.
Available Resources
To make the research easy to access and use, we have prepared three companion resources:
1. Executive Summary
A concise overview of the 2026 findings, including the three-year comparison and the key takeaways for operators, policymakers, destination partners and investors.
2. Executive Summary Presentation Deck
A visual summary of the research, designed for quick review, presentations, board discussions and partner briefings.
3. Three-Year Longitudinal Report
A deeper analysis of the 2024, 2025 and 2026 survey waves, including methodology, year-over-year comparisons, strategic implications, survey limitations and the broader trends shaping tourism business confidence in the region.
Prefer to Listen?
We have also developed an AI-assisted podcast version of the findings for those who would rather listen than read. This was an interesting exercise in using AI to make regional research more accessible and to offer another way for operators, partners and community leaders to engage with the key themes in the Business Confidence Index.
Together, these resources provide a clearer picture of where the regional tourism economy stands in 2026: more confident, more stable, and more resilient — but still facing real pressure to convert demand, fill available capacity, protect margins, and support sustainable business growth across the region.
